NASDAQ · STOCK
AppLovin
$395.81
52W $359.00 – $745.61
52/100
$133.00B
33.8
2.48
Is APP Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates AppLovin (APP) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +8.39 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -11.61 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 40.0% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.65) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 222.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 40.0% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 110.3% YoY — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 2.57 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 34.2 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 106.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.65 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 73%
of 172 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 222.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 34.2 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
71
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 40.0% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.65) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 25 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.7 to 51.6.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 43% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
32.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-2.728
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$365.18
Resistance
$417.30
Bollinger %B
0.25
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$411.03
Below
EMA 21
$436.80
Below
EMA 50
$464.25
Below
EMA 200
$480.53
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
42
Growth
66
Profitability
4
Financial Health
75
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
33.8×
P/B Ratio
56.52×
PEG Ratio
0.32
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$745.61
52W Low
$359.00
Quality & Growth
ROE
156.2%
ROA
45.9%
Gross Margin
88.4%
Operating Margin
77.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.49
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 33.8 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 56.5x; PEG ratio of 0.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 1.6%; Return on assets of 0.5%; Net margin of 0.6%; Gross margin of 0.9%; Current ratio of 3.24 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.49; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (13.05); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 3.6%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+32.2% -> +9.9% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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