NASDAQ · STOCK
Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals
$84.64
52W $15.01 – $95.49
49/100
$11.92B
-39.6
1.26
Is ARWR Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals (ARWR) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.58 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.42 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Technical Analyst sees a compelling case — price structure making higher highs and higher lows. Value Analyst remains cautious — price-to-book of 10.0x prices in significant intangible value. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 10.0x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only -55.5% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 32.8% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 92%
of 93 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− Price-to-book of 10.0x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 32.8% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 50.5 to 49.4.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 43% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
56.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.761
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$69.46
Resistance
$86.74
Bollinger %B
0.64
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$84.16
Above
EMA 21
$81.81
Above
EMA 50
$78.82
Above
EMA 200
$64.26
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Growth
40
Profitability
0
Financial Health
57
Cash Flow
11
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-39.6×
P/B Ratio
19.64×
PEG Ratio
0.00
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$95.49
52W Low
$15.01
Quality & Growth
ROE
-0.4%
ROA
-0.1%
Gross Margin
100.0%
Operating Margin
-35.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.24
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -39.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 19.6x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -0.0%; Return on assets of -0.0%; Net margin of -0.5%; Gross margin of 1.0%; Current ratio of 6.23 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.24; Free cash flow margin of 1.4% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is negative (-0.36); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 23.2%; EPS growth decelerating (+222.2% -> -522.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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