NASDAQ · STOCK
ASML Holding N.V.
$1,631.83
52W $683.48 – $1999.96
55/100
$627.85B
52.0
1.39
Is ASML Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.59 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.41 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Some positive signals exist — news sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 151 articles, 14d) — but they are not yet strong enough to justify a Buy. The committee is monitoring for confirmation.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 44.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.19) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 2.19 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 151 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 52.8 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 14.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 17.8% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 36%
of 172 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
49
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 44.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 52.8 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.19) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 17.8% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 151 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.8 to 55.4.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 57% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 6 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst, Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 60->68 (+9); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 38->48 (+10).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
39.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-22.112
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$1248.97
Resistance
$1999.94
Bollinger %B
0.17
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$1,670.77
Below
EMA 21
$1,720.58
Below
EMA 50
$1,707.25
Below
EMA 200
$1,428.35
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
0
Growth
70
Profitability
1
Financial Health
72
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
52.0×
P/B Ratio
25.33×
PEG Ratio
3.54
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$1999.96
52W Low
$683.48
Quality & Growth
ROE
49.0%
ROA
19.0%
Gross Margin
52.7%
Operating Margin
35.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.09
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 52.0 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 25.3x; PEG ratio of 3.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.5%; Return on assets of 0.2%; Net margin of 0.3%; Gross margin of 0.5%; Current ratio of 1.33 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.09; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (25.95); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 9.4%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-2.6% -> +6.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 28.5%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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