NASDAQ · STOCK
Corpay
$382.15
52W $252.84 – $395.49
51/100
$24.98B
22.6
0.88
Is CPAY Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Corpay (CPAY) Watch with a composite score of 51/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.46 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.54 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Technical Analyst sees a compelling case — price structure making higher highs and higher lows. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 2.58) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 30.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 5.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.58 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 73 is in overbought territory — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.58) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.98 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
51/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 86%
of 172 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 30.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 5.4x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− RSI at 73 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.58) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 51.6 to 50.5.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 57% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
60.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
2.128
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$335.55
Resistance
$384.65
Bollinger %B
0.79
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$378.92
Above
EMA 21
$368.83
Above
EMA 50
$355.84
Above
EMA 200
$331.85
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
54
Growth
40
Profitability
1
Financial Health
7
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
22.6×
P/B Ratio
7.35×
PEG Ratio
1.38
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$395.49
52W Low
$252.84
Quality & Growth
ROE
27.6%
ROA
4.0%
Gross Margin
72.8%
Operating Margin
43.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.95
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 22.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 7.4x; PEG ratio of 1.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.3%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.2%; Gross margin of 0.7%; Current ratio of 0.98 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.95; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (19.40); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 3.9%; EPS growth decelerating (+6.0% -> -4.0% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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