NASDAQ · STOCK
CommVault Systems
$117.78
52W $71.75 – $198.18
49/100
$4.88B
74.6
0.79
Is CVLT Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates CommVault Systems (CVLT) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.08 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.92 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 30 articles, 14d). Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 117.54) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 56.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 30 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 71.3 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 457.1x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 117.54 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -12.6% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- RSI at 22 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 90%
of 172 Technology peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ ROE of 56.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 71.3 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− EPS declining -12.6% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
46
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− RSI at 22 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 117.54) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 30 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 50.0 to 48.9.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 43% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 5 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 5 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
25.3
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-4.621
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$115.20
Resistance
$129.48
Bollinger %B
0.01
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$129.43
Below
EMA 21
$135.34
Below
EMA 50
$130.05
Below
EMA 200
$123.40
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
85
Profitability
12
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
74.6×
P/B Ratio
93.57×
PEG Ratio
-5.28
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$198.18
52W Low
$71.75
Quality & Growth
ROE
942.8%
ROA
3.8%
Gross Margin
80.9%
Operating Margin
7.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
17.63
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 74.6 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 93.6x; PEG ratio of -5.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 9.4%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.8%; Current ratio of 2.04 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 17.63; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (6.25); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 19.9%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth roughly steady (+9.4% -> +10.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 40.6%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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