NASDAQ · STOCK
Exelon
$45.83
52W $42.58 – $50.65
49/100
$46.88B
16.7
0.41
Is EXC Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Exelon (EXC) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.15 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.85 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Technical Analyst sees a compelling case — price structure making higher highs and higher lows. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.74) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 3.7% pays you to wait — Value
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bullish picture — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 1.74 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.74) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.92 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 73%
of 45 Utilities peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Dividend yield of 3.7% pays you to wait
− Debt-to-equity of 1.74 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.74) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 55.4 to 48.9.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 43% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Growth Analyst, Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: stance bullish->bearish; score 68->38 (-31); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 69->61 (-8); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
38.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.116
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$45.40
Resistance
$46.02
Bollinger %B
0.15
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$46.52
Below
EMA 21
$46.58
Below
EMA 50
$46.46
Below
EMA 200
$45.92
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
64
Growth
40
Profitability
0
Financial Health
27
Cash Flow
8
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.7×
P/B Ratio
1.58×
PEG Ratio
4.00
Dividend Yield
0.04%
52W High
$50.65
52W Low
$42.58
Quality & Growth
ROE
9.6%
ROA
2.4%
Gross Margin
24.5%
Operating Margin
20.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.76
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 16.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.6x; PEG ratio of 4.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 1.00 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.76; Free cash flow margin of -0.3% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is negative (-1.87); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 2.5%; EPS growth decelerating (+54.2% -> -52.7% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 10.3%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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