NASDAQ · STOCK
Guidewire Software
$151.75
52W $102.30 – $272.60
53/100
$12.65B
80.4
0.95
Is GWRE Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Guidewire Software (GWRE) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.29 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.71 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 364.6% yoy. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 26.4% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- EPS growing 364.6% YoY — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 19 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 79.6 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 13.1x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Bollinger bandwidth of 26.4% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 65%
of 172 Technology peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 79.6 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 364.6% YoY
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 26.4% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 19 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.7 to 52.7.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 6 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 54->61 (+8).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
55.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.366
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$134.03
Resistance
$153.65
Bollinger %B
0.71
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$150.34
Above
EMA 21
$143.67
Above
EMA 50
$138.67
Above
EMA 200
$157.38
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
69
Profitability
0
Financial Health
99
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
80.4×
P/B Ratio
9.76×
PEG Ratio
0.22
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$272.60
52W Low
$102.30
Quality & Growth
ROE
4.8%
ROA
2.6%
Gross Margin
64.0%
Operating Margin
8.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.53
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 80.4 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.8x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.0%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.6%; Current ratio of 2.44 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.53; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (3.01); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 8.1%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+77.3% -> -29.9% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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