NASDAQ · STOCK
HCA Healthcare
$402.67
52W $353.39 – $556.52
55/100
$87.16B
13.4
1.13
Is HCA Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates HCA Healthcare (HCA) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.16 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.84 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 29.2% yoy. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 54.20) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 12.6 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 695.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 29.2% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 97.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 54.20 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 54.20) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.97 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 19.2% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 59%
of 93 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ P/E of 12.6 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Price-to-book of 97.3x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 29.2% YoY
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
33
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 54.20) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.2 to 54.8.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 57% to 43%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
57.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
2.900
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$356.89
Resistance
$417.02
Bollinger %B
0.64
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$395.28
Above
EMA 21
$391.83
Above
EMA 50
$398.95
Above
EMA 200
$428.66
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
75
Profitability
0
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
13.4×
P/B Ratio
-13.64×
PEG Ratio
0.55
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$556.52
52W Low
$353.39
Quality & Growth
ROE
-112.6%
ROA
11.2%
Gross Margin
28.4%
Operating Margin
15.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-7.42
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 13.4 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -13.6x; PEG ratio of 0.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -1.1%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.3%; Current ratio of 0.78 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -7.42; Free cash flow margin of 0.5% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (26.91); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 1.0%; EPS growth accelerating (-12.2% -> +6.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 11.6%; Analyst estimates flat over recent quarters
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