NASDAQ · STOCK
International Business Machines
$223.80
52W $199.19 – $332.46
51/100
$210.71B
19.5
0.68
Is IBM Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates International Business Machines (IBM) Watch with a composite score of 51/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.39 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.61 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 82.7% yoy. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.88) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 33.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.0% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 82.7% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 8.5x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.88 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Daily trend (downtrend) conflicts with the weekly trend (uptrend) -- fighting the larger trend — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.88) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
51/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 84%
of 172 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 33.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 8.5x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 82.7% YoY
Technical Analyst
bearish
39
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
33
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.88) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 52.3 to 50.6.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 43% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 64->60 (-4).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
45.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.262
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$220.81
Resistance
$237.37
Bollinger %B
0.39
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$222.85
Above
EMA 21
$234.63
Below
EMA 50
$247.41
Below
EMA 200
$259.11
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
70
Growth
58
Profitability
1
Financial Health
15
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
19.5×
P/B Ratio
6.10×
PEG Ratio
0.24
Dividend Yield
0.03%
52W High
$332.46
52W Low
$199.19
Quality & Growth
ROE
32.5%
ROA
7.0%
Gross Margin
58.4%
Operating Margin
17.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.89
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 19.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 6.1x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.3%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.2%; Gross margin of 0.6%; Current ratio of 0.79 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.89; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (15.52); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 2.3%; EPS growth accelerating (-57.7% -> +53.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 4.6%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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