NASDAQ · STOCK
Lumentum
$713.72
52W $101.61 – $1085.68
49/100
$55.54B
115.0
1.48
Is LITE Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Lumentum (LITE) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +10.67 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -9.33 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 69.0% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 2.27) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 30.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 69.0% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 1.52 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 126.7 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 5.8x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.27 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.27) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 88%
of 172 Technology peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ ROE of 30.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 126.7 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
67
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 69.0% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.27) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 49.0 to 49.3.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 43% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 6 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 38->48 (+10).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
47.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-6.118
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Bollinger %B
0.38
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$714.15
Below
EMA 21
$750.49
Below
EMA 50
$792.90
Below
EMA 200
$635.34
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
71
Profitability
0
Financial Health
49
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
115.0×
P/B Ratio
17.17×
PEG Ratio
0.03
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$1085.68
52W Low
$101.61
Quality & Growth
ROE
2.3%
ROA
0.6%
Gross Margin
37.7%
Operating Margin
10.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.11
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 115.0 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 17.2x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.0%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.2%; Gross margin of 0.4%; Current ratio of 1.14 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.11; Free cash flow margin of 0.6% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (3.83); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 1.6%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+51.8% -> +41.9% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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