NASDAQ · STOCK
Eli Lilly and Company
$1,148.86
52W $623.78 – $1249.45
56/100
$1.08T
40.7
0.51
Is LLY Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated August 01, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.33 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.67 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 47.4% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.60) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 101.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 47.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 128.8% YoY — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 42.8 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 38.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.60 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.60) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 01, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 61%
of 93 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ ROE of 101.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 42.8 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
84
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 47.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.60) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2535.03)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.2 to 55.7.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->70 (+12).
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral.
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-31 to 2026-08-01 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
37.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-5.737
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.16
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$1,178.98
Below
EMA 21
$1,175.73
Below
EMA 50
$1,138.28
Above
EMA 200
$1,021.72
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
86
Profitability
2
Financial Health
57
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
40.7×
P/B Ratio
32.93×
PEG Ratio
0.32
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$1249.45
52W Low
$623.78
Quality & Growth
ROE
77.8%
ROA
18.4%
Gross Margin
83.5%
Operating Margin
45.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.39
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 40.7 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 32.9x; PEG ratio of 0.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.8%; Return on assets of 0.2%; Net margin of 0.3%; Gross margin of 0.8%; Current ratio of 1.50 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.39; Free cash flow margin of 0.7% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (15.18); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 27.0%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+7.4% -> +13.4% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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