NASDAQ · STOCK
Moderna
$54.84
52W $22.28 – $85.60
56/100
$21.75B
-6.9
0.94
Is MRNA Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Moderna (MRNA) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.47 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.53 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.3x is a discount to asset value — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.07) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- ROE of only -36.7% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Revenue declining -30.0% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 56.5% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 52%
of 93 Healthcare peers
Value Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ Price-to-book of 1.3x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only -36.7% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Revenue declining -30.0% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.07) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 56.5% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.1 to 55.5.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 43% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst, Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish.
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 38->48 (+10).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
35.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-1.387
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$44.04
Resistance
$55.20
Bollinger %B
0.25
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$57.27
Below
EMA 21
$60.11
Below
EMA 50
$58.99
Below
EMA 200
$48.18
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
91
Growth
88
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
10
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-6.9×
P/B Ratio
3.21×
PEG Ratio
0.81
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$85.60
52W Low
$22.28
Quality & Growth
ROE
-32.6%
ROA
-22.9%
Gross Margin
-12.6%
Operating Margin
-149.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.18
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -6.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.2x; PEG ratio of 0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -0.3%; Return on assets of -0.2%; Net margin of -1.4%; Gross margin of -0.1%; Current ratio of 2.29 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.18; Free cash flow margin of 1.2% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is negative (-3.09); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 7.3%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-61.1% -> +42.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 7.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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