NASDAQ · STOCK
Microsoft Corporation
$463.20
52W $349.20 – $553.72
58/100
$3.45T
25.8
1.13
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is MSFT Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Buy with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +16.70 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -3.30 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Some positive signals exist — eps growing 31.6% yoy — but they are not yet strong enough to justify a Buy. The committee is monitoring for confirmation.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 33.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 31.6% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 25.5 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 6.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- RSI at 83 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 15.2% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 15%
of 172 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 33.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 25.5 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
79
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 31.6% YoY
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 83 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.24) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 15.2% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 63.8 to 58.3.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 57% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 6 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst, Risk Analyst, Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->62 (+4).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 80->58 (-22); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 61->54 (-8); +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: score 59->54 (-5); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
85.4
Overbought
MACD Histogram
6.915
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$404.76
Resistance
$466.32
Bollinger %B
1.27
Above Upper Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$414.85
Above
EMA 21
$400.39
Above
EMA 50
$395.66
Above
EMA 200
$408.74
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
53
Growth
86
Profitability
1
Financial Health
68
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
25.8×
P/B Ratio
7.80×
PEG Ratio
0.82
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$553.72
52W Low
$349.20
Quality & Growth
ROE
30.2%
ROA
17.6%
Gross Margin
67.9%
Operating Margin
46.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.29
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 25.8 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 7.8x; PEG ratio of 0.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.3%; Return on assets of 0.2%; Net margin of 0.4%; Gross margin of 0.7%; Current ratio of 1.23 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.29; Free cash flow margin of 0.4% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (9.02); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 9.5%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+3.1% -> +11.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 104.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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