NASDAQ · STOCK
MicroStrategy
$93.28
52W $81.81 – $414.36
56/100
$30.86B
-1.0
3.54
Is MSTR Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates MicroStrategy (MSTR) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.06 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.94 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Some positive signals exist — low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.16) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — but they are not yet strong enough to justify a Buy. The committee is monitoring for confirmation.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.16) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- ROE of only -23.7% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- News sentiment is negative (-0.40 across 229 articles, 14d) — News
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 32%
of 172 Technology peers
Value Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ Price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value
− ROE of only -23.7% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− 3 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bullish
80
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.16) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
44
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
− News sentiment is negative (-0.40 across 229 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.2 to 55.9.
- Conviction changed from high to moderate.
- Committee agreement fell modestly from 80% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 5 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
- New analyst(s) joined: Risk Analyst, Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 52->48 (-4); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: score 58->44 (-13); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst joined: bullish at 80.
- Value Analyst joined: bullish at 60.
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
44.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
1.363
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$81.84
Resistance
$152.24
Bollinger %B
0.27
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$95.56
Below
EMA 21
$98.07
Below
EMA 50
$111.10
Below
EMA 200
$175.23
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
46
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
35
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-1.0×
P/B Ratio
1.04×
PEG Ratio
0.01
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$414.36
52W Low
$81.81
Quality & Growth
ROE
-7.9%
ROA
-6.5%
Gross Margin
67.6%
Operating Margin
-7295.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.00
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -1.0 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.0x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -0.1%; Return on assets of -0.1%; Net margin of -62.7%; Gross margin of 0.7%; Current ratio of 5.39 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.00; Free cash flow margin of -88.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (13.18); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 223.0%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (+10.9% -> +35.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -176.0%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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