NASDAQ · STOCK
NorthWestern Energy
$68.77
52W $53.19 – $75.18
49/100
$4.23B
24.6
0.36
Is NWE Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates NorthWestern Energy (NWE) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.48 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.52 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case. Growth Analyst remains cautious — eps declining -29.6% yoy despite any revenue growth. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.8% pays you to wait — Value
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 25.6 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- EPS declining -29.6% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Current ratio of 0.72 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 75%
of 45 Utilities peers
Value Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value
− P/E of 25.6 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -29.6% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.72 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 51.4 to 48.5.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 57% to 43%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 61->48 (-13).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
24.9
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-0.399
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$65.54
Resistance
$69.14
Bollinger %B
-0.05
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$70.95
Below
EMA 21
$71.37
Below
EMA 50
$71.14
Below
EMA 200
$67.63
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
87
Growth
57
Profitability
0
Financial Health
33
Cash Flow
8
Valuation
P/E Ratio
24.6×
P/B Ratio
1.46×
PEG Ratio
-1.03
Dividend Yield
0.04%
52W High
$75.18
52W Low
$53.19
Quality & Growth
ROE
6.3%
ROA
2.1%
Gross Margin
66.5%
Operating Margin
18.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.24
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 24.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.5x; PEG ratio of -1.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.7%; Current ratio of 0.83 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.24; Free cash flow margin of -0.5% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is negative (-3.12); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 13.6%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+12.0% -> -61.8% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 25.0%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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