NASDAQ · STOCK
ON Semiconductor
$81.58
52W $44.56 – $134.92
45/100
$31.76B
57.9
2.01
Is ON Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates ON Semiconductor (ON) Watch with a composite score of 45/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +14.59 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -5.41 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 28 articles, 14d). Growth Analyst remains cautious — revenue declining -9.0% yoy -- this is not a growth story right now. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 2.04 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 28 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 57.1 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Revenue declining -9.0% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -2.9% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 20.1% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
45/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 100%
of 172 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− P/E of 57.1 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bearish
18
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Revenue declining -9.0% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 20.1% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 28 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 45.4 to 45.4.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 43% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 5 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 38->48 (+10).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
36.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.208
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$66.40
Resistance
$134.79
Bollinger %B
0.09
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$85.31
Below
EMA 21
$90.48
Below
EMA 50
$96.07
Below
EMA 200
$81.30
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
52
Growth
60
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
38
Valuation
P/E Ratio
57.9×
P/B Ratio
4.40×
PEG Ratio
-14.18
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$134.92
52W Low
$44.56
Quality & Growth
ROE
1.6%
ROA
1.0%
Gross Margin
37.2%
Operating Margin
10.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.41
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 57.9 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.4x; PEG ratio of -14.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.0%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.4%; Current ratio of 4.87 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.41; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (3.69); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 3.3%; EPS growth roughly steady (+1.6% -> +0.0% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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