NASDAQ · STOCK
Supermicro
$28.40
52W $19.48 – $59.40
52/100
$18.37B
13.6
1.94
Is SMCI Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Supermicro (SMCI) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.50 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.50 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Value Analyst sees a compelling case — p/e of 14.4 is inexpensive for the broad market. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 29.8% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 14.4 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 18.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 56.2% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (downtrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 4.6x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Price structure (HH_HL) contradicts the downtrend -- mixed signals — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 29.8% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 66%
of 172 Technology peers
Value Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 14.4 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Price-to-book of 4.6x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 56.2% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
53
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 29.8% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.3 to 52.5.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 43% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
51.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.344
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$27.77
Resistance
$34.93
Bollinger %B
0.61
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$28.01
Above
EMA 21
$28.41
Below
EMA 50
$29.89
Below
EMA 200
$33.97
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
96
Growth
64
Profitability
0
Financial Health
90
Cash Flow
10
Valuation
P/E Ratio
13.6×
P/B Ratio
2.24×
PEG Ratio
0.30
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$59.40
52W Low
$19.48
Quality & Growth
ROE
16.6%
ROA
7.5%
Gross Margin
8.4%
Operating Margin
4.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.89
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 13.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.2x; PEG ratio of 0.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.2%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.1%; Current ratio of 2.66 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.89; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is negative (-11.46); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 32.3%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+97.1% -> +21.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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