NASDAQ · STOCK
Semtech
$117.75
52W $46.02 – $177.35
51/100
$10.98B
-316.2
2.31
Is SMTC Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Semtech (SMTC) Watch with a composite score of 51/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +9.46 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -10.54 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — quarter-over-quarter growth rate is accelerating, not just positive. Value Analyst remains cautious — price-to-book of 13.7x prices in significant intangible value. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 2.37 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.17 across 6 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 13.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only -5.9% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 31.6% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
51/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 86%
of 172 Technology peers
Value Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− Price-to-book of 13.7x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
75
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 31.6% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.17 across 6 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 50.1 to 50.5.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 5 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 38->48 (+10).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
42.6
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-1.651
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$73.90
Resistance
$177.21
Bollinger %B
0.25
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$120.15
Below
EMA 21
$128.75
Below
EMA 50
$133.48
Below
EMA 200
$105.78
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Growth
71
Profitability
0
Financial Health
91
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-316.2×
P/B Ratio
19.09×
PEG Ratio
0.66
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$177.35
52W Low
$46.02
Quality & Growth
ROE
-7.3%
ROA
-2.9%
Gross Margin
51.5%
Operating Margin
11.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.86
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -316.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 19.1x; PEG ratio of 0.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -0.1%; Return on assets of -0.0%; Net margin of -0.0%; Gross margin of 0.5%; Current ratio of 2.37 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.86; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (1.71); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 10.4%; EPS growth accelerating (-8.3% -> +15.9% QoQ); Analyst estimates flat over recent quarters
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