NASDAQ · STOCK
Seagate Technology
$855.57
52W $144.75 – $1145.00
53/100
$191.97B
58.9
2.07
Is STX Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Seagate Technology (STX) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.68 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.32 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 34.1% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.65) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 212.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 34.1% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 104.5% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 60.0 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 84.9x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.65 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.65) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 24.9% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 57%
of 172 Technology peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ ROE of 212.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 60.0 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
84
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 34.1% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.65) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 193 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.1 to 53.3.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
52.9
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-1.241
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$343.48
Resistance
$1144.80
Bollinger %B
0.56
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$831.81
Above
EMA 21
$850.50
Above
EMA 50
$837.67
Above
EMA 200
$583.22
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
33
Growth
89
Profitability
3
Financial Health
58
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
58.9×
P/B Ratio
86.52×
PEG Ratio
0.54
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$1145.00
52W Low
$144.75
Quality & Growth
ROE
146.9%
ROA
31.9%
Gross Margin
45.6%
Operating Margin
33.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.65
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 58.9 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 86.5x; PEG ratio of 0.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 1.5%; Return on assets of 0.3%; Net margin of 0.3%; Gross margin of 0.5%; Current ratio of 1.67 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.65; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (15.19); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 11.1%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+31.8% -> +39.3% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 120.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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