NASDAQ · STOCK
Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg.
$404.35
52W $223.70 – $479.00
57/100
$2.10T
28.1
1.25
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is TSM Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg. (TSM) Buy with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 7 analysts with 86% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +18.00 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -2.00 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Some positive signals exist — revenue growing 31.4% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum — but they are not yet strong enough to justify a Buy. The committee is monitoring for confirmation.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 39.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Revenue growing 31.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 55.2% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.20) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
Bear Case
- P/E of 25.2 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 7.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 18.0% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
86%
Analysts
7
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 22%
of 172 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 39.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 25.2 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
84
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 31.4% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.20) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 18.0% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
53
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.9 to 57.0.
- Conviction strengthened -- analysts aligned more closely.
- Committee agreement increased sharply from 43% to 86%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 5 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst, Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 62->53 (-9).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 38->48 (+10).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
48.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-2.128
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$313.81
Resistance
$478.55
Bollinger %B
0.35
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$402.37
Above
EMA 21
$412.28
Below
EMA 50
$414.91
Below
EMA 200
$361.84
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
49
Growth
88
Profitability
2
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
28.1×
P/B Ratio
9.78×
PEG Ratio
0.53
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$479.00
52W Low
$223.70
Quality & Growth
ROE
32.4%
ROA
21.9%
Gross Margin
64.2%
Operating Margin
56.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.15
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 28.1 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.8x; PEG ratio of 0.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.3%; Return on assets of 0.2%; Net margin of 0.5%; Gross margin of 0.6%; Current ratio of 2.46 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.15; Free cash flow margin of 0.4% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (215.67); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 10.9%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+13.2% -> +23.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 77.4%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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