NASDAQ · STOCK
Vistra Corp.
$142.88
52W $132.66 – $219.82
54/100
—
24.5
1.41
Is VST Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Vistra Corp. (VST) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 29, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.21 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.79 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing). Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 4.10) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 43.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 1.44 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 36 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 10.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 4.10 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -5.4% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 4.10) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.78 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 29, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 75%
of 45 Utilities peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 43.2% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 10.7x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
neutral
57
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -5.4% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 4.10) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 36 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3206.65)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.8 to 53.8.
Comparing 2026-07-28 to 2026-07-29 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
32.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.631
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$142.64
Resistance
$168.42
Bollinger %B
0.03
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$158.50
Below
EMA 21
$158.42
Below
EMA 50
$157.30
Below
EMA 200
$164.23
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
54
Growth
52
Profitability
0
Financial Health
4
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
24.5×
P/B Ratio
9.02×
PEG Ratio
-3.55
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$219.82
52W Low
$132.66
Quality & Growth
ROE
18.5%
ROA
2.3%
Gross Margin
12.7%
Operating Margin
2.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
3.56
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 24.5 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 9.0x; PEG ratio of -3.5 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.2%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.1%; Current ratio of 0.90 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 3.56; Free cash flow margin of 0.2% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (3.31); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 112.2%; EPS growth accelerating (-69.1% -> +431.5% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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