NASDAQ · STOCK
Advanced Drainage Systems
$139.18
52W $110.80 – $179.31
57/100
—
26.1
1.26
Explore WMS Further
Is WMS Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Advanced Drainage Systems (WMS) Watch with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated July 20, 2026.
Executive Summary
Some positive signals exist — market regime is bullish (bull market -- normal position sizing) — but they are not yet strong enough to justify a Buy. The committee is monitoring for confirmation.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Daily trend: uptrend.
- Weekly trend: uptrend.
- Daily and weekly trends are both bullish — multi-timeframe alignment, highest confidence.
- Daily volatility (ATR%) above ~3% is treated as elevated risk.
Bear Case
- MACD histogram is negative (-0.911) — bearish momentum.
- Bearish candlestick pattern(s) detected: Three Black Crows.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 3.3% downside vs 1.7% upside.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 20, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 22.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 26.5 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− EPS declining -5.4% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
57
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 5 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2975.52)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 56.8 to 56.8.
- New bearish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-19 to 2026-07-20 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
35.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.911
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$138.40
Resistance
$145.57
Bollinger %B
0.14
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$148.30
Below
EMA 21
$147.52
Below
EMA 50
$145.40
Below
EMA 200
$144.11
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
63
Growth
81
Profitability
1
Financial Health
89
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
26.1×
P/B Ratio
5.76×
PEG Ratio
-4.73
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$179.31
52W Low
$110.80
Quality & Growth
ROE
22.1%
ROA
9.5%
Gross Margin
37.2%
Operating Margin
22.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.93
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 26.1 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.8x; PEG ratio of -4.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.2%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.4%; Current ratio of 2.42 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.93; Free cash flow margin of 0.7% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (7.32); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 11.7%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-35.5% -> -15.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
Key Risks
- MACD histogram is negative (-0.911) — bearish momentum.
- Bearish candlestick pattern(s) detected: Three Black Crows.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 3.3% downside vs 1.7% upside.
This risk summary is generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative opinion. All investors should conduct their own due diligence. This is not financial advice.
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