NASDAQ · STOCK
AAON
$89.11
52W $62.00 – $150.46
48/100
$7.30B
61.4
1.41
Is AAON Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates AAON (AAON) Watch with a composite score of 48/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.52 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.48 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 28.3% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 31.6% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 28.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 1.46 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 62.6 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 7.0x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -25.4% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- RSI at 21 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Price trading below the lower Bollinger Band -- stretched to the downside — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
48/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 93%
of 158 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 62.6 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 28.3% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− EPS declining -25.4% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− RSI at 21 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup)
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 31.6% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 50.3 to 48.5.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst, Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish.
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance neutral->bearish; score 46->38 (-8); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
25.6
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-1.800
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$86.39
Resistance
$94.62
Bollinger %B
0.07
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$95.91
Below
EMA 21
$104.57
Below
EMA 50
$111.91
Below
EMA 200
$104.21
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
34
Growth
68
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
8
Valuation
P/E Ratio
61.4×
P/B Ratio
7.79×
PEG Ratio
-2.40
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$150.46
52W Low
$62.00
Quality & Growth
ROE
12.0%
ROA
6.4%
Gross Margin
26.2%
Operating Margin
10.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.48
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 61.4 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 7.8x; PEG ratio of -2.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.3%; Current ratio of 2.62 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.48; Free cash flow margin of -3.3% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is negative (-1.78); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 62.3%; EPS growth accelerating (+5.4% -> +23.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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