NASDAQ · STOCK
Arch Capital Group
$101.01
52W $82.45 – $105.09
65/100
$35394.48T
7.7
0.29
Price History (6M)
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Executive Summary
6 analysts weighed in with 50% agreement on a bullish lean. Portfolio Manager: Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy. Growth Analyst: Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level. Overall recommendation: WATCH.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Positive MACD histogram signals bullish momentum.
- Daily trend: uptrend.
- Weekly trend: uptrend.
- Daily and weekly trends are both bullish — multi-timeframe alignment, highest confidence.
- Daily volatility (ATR%) above ~3% is treated as elevated risk.
Bear Case
- Lower Highs / Lower Lows structure confirms bearish price action.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 6.8% downside vs 2.3% upside.
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
65/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Growth Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 18.0% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
bullish
75
/ 100 · Low confidence
The existing book is healthy enough that position-sizing here is a matter of stock selection, not portfolio constraints
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
65.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.667
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$94.17
Resistance
$103.34
Bollinger %B
0.76
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$100.23
Above
EMA 21
$97.50
Above
EMA 50
$95.59
Above
EMA 200
$94.38
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
52
Profitability
1
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
7.7×
P/B Ratio
1.50×
PEG Ratio
0.24
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$105.09
52W Low
$82.45
Quality & Growth
ROE
18.2%
ROA
6.6%
Gross Margin
42.8%
Operating Margin
27.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.11
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 7.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.5x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.2%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.2%; Gross margin of 0.4%; Current ratio of 0.68 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.11; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (16.29); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 1.1%; EPS growth decelerating (+7.6% -> -16.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Key Risks
- Lower Highs / Lower Lows structure confirms bearish price action.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 6.8% downside vs 2.3% upside.
This risk summary is generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative opinion. All investors should conduct their own due diligence. This is not financial advice.
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