NASDAQ · STOCK
AGCO
$102.34
52W $99.21 – $143.78
56/100
$7.40B
14.1
1.07
Is AGCO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates AGCO (AGCO) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +4.01 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -15.99 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Some positive signals exist — p/e of 9.7 is inexpensive for the broad market — but they are not yet strong enough to justify a Buy. The committee is monitoring for confirmation.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 9.7 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 17.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Revenue declining -3.8% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Price structure (LH_LL) contradicts the uptrend -- mixed signals — Technical
- Price trading below the lower Bollinger Band -- stretched to the downside — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 37%
of 158 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 9.7 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− Revenue declining -3.8% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 57.7 to 56.0.
- Conviction strengthened -- analysts aligned more closely.
- Committee agreement increased sharply from 50% to 83%.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 43->50 (+7); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 63->54 (-9); +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
25.6
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-1.103
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$99.36
Resistance
$103.82
Bollinger %B
-0.17
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$113.12
Below
EMA 21
$114.57
Below
EMA 50
$115.25
Below
EMA 200
$114.31
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
99
Growth
64
Profitability
0
Financial Health
72
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
14.1×
P/B Ratio
1.78×
PEG Ratio
0.03
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$143.78
52W Low
$99.21
Quality & Growth
ROE
17.0%
ROA
6.1%
Gross Margin
25.0%
Operating Margin
6.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.03
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 14.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.8x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.2%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.3%; Current ratio of 1.32 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.03; Free cash flow margin of 0.4% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (2.06); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 5.0%; EPS growth accelerating (-56.7% -> +52.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 5.9%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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