NASDAQ · STOCK
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
$249.42
52W $190.75 – $313.55
48/100
$64.08B
40.9
0.51
Is AJG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. (AJG) Watch with a composite score of 48/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +12.29 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -7.71 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 40.4 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- EPS declining -4.7% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
48/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 95%
of 141 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 40.4 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -4.7% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 53.2 to 47.7.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 50% to 67%.
- New bearish signals: 6 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 6 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Growth Analyst, Macro Analyst, News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: stance neutral->bearish; score 57->35 (-22); +2 bearish signal(s).
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 62->58 (-4).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
46.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.928
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$239.74
Resistance
$253.75
Bollinger %B
0.35
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$254.54
Below
EMA 21
$249.17
Above
EMA 50
$237.06
Above
EMA 200
$240.52
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
61
Growth
45
Profitability
0
Financial Health
61
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
40.9×
P/B Ratio
2.70×
PEG Ratio
-4.19
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$313.55
52W Low
$190.75
Quality & Growth
ROE
6.4%
ROA
2.1%
Gross Margin
74.6%
Operating Margin
17.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.09
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 40.9 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.7x; PEG ratio of -4.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.7%; Current ratio of 1.05 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.09; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (7.26); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 0.0%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+87.8% -> -36.5% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 21.9%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Get the Full AJG Analysis
Interactive charts · Live committee votes · Trade plan · Paper trading · AI Q&A
Open in Terminal →