NASDAQ · STOCK
Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.
$253.00
52W $190.75 – $316.71
63/100
$67374.64T
40.4
0.51
Price History (6M)
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Executive Summary
6 analysts weighed in with 67% agreement on a bullish lean. Growth Analyst: Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive. Risk Analyst: Bollinger bandwidth of 29.1% signals elevated volatility. Overall recommendation: BUY.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- RSI at or above 70 signals overbought conditions — bearish entry bias.
- Positive MACD histogram signals bullish momentum.
- Higher Highs / Higher Lows structure confirms bullish price action.
- Daily volatility (ATR%) above ~3% is treated as elevated risk.
Bear Case
- RSI is overbought at 75.6 — momentum may be exhausted.
- Stochastic RSI (84.6) confirms overbought conditions.
- Both daily and weekly trends are bearish — strong multi-timeframe downtrend.
- Bearish candlestick pattern(s) detected: Evening Star.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 5.2% downside vs 0.3% upside.
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
63/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · Low confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 76 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 29.1% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
bullish
75
/ 100 · Low confidence
The existing book is healthy enough that position-sizing here is a matter of stock selection, not portfolio constraints
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
75.6
Overbought
MACD Histogram
2.866
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$239.74
Resistance
$253.75
Bollinger %B
0.84
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$246.17
Above
EMA 21
$234.02
Above
EMA 50
$223.47
Above
EMA 200
$238.43
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
60
Growth
61
Profitability
0
Financial Health
61
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
40.4×
P/B Ratio
2.74×
PEG Ratio
-7.43
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$316.71
52W Low
$190.75
Quality & Growth
ROE
6.4%
ROA
2.1%
Gross Margin
66.0%
Operating Margin
18.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.05
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 40.4 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.7x; PEG ratio of -7.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.7%; Current ratio of 1.06 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.05; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (7.24); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 0.0%; EPS growth accelerating (+2.6% -> +87.8% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Key Risks
- RSI is overbought at 75.6 — momentum may be exhausted.
- Stochastic RSI (84.6) confirms overbought conditions.
- Both daily and weekly trends are bearish — strong multi-timeframe downtrend.
- Bearish candlestick pattern(s) detected: Evening Star.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 5.2% downside vs 0.3% upside.
This risk summary is generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative opinion. All investors should conduct their own due diligence. This is not financial advice.
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