NASDAQ · STOCK
Ares Management
$128.25
52W $95.80 – $195.26
49/100
$42.07B
56.7
1.54
Is ARES Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Ares Management (ARES) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.36 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.64 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Technical Analyst sees a compelling case — macd histogram positive -- bullish momentum. Value Analyst remains cautious — p/e of 44.4 is expensive by classic value standards. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 4.4% pays you to wait — Value
- Revenue growing 38.5% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 29.8% YoY — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 44.4 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 8.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 3.17 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.17) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 93%
of 141 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bearish
28
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ Dividend yield of 4.4% pays you to wait
− P/E of 44.4 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Revenue growing 38.5% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.17) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 50.0 to 48.6.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 43% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral.
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s); +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
64.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.638
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$126.03
Resistance
$137.87
Bollinger %B
0.92
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$125.18
Above
EMA 21
$123.61
Above
EMA 50
$122.74
Above
EMA 200
$132.76
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
20
Growth
49
Profitability
0
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
56.7×
P/B Ratio
7.13×
PEG Ratio
2.05
Dividend Yield
0.04%
52W High
$195.26
52W Low
$95.80
Quality & Growth
ROE
12.3%
ROA
1.8%
Gross Margin
70.7%
Operating Margin
22.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
3.51
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 56.7 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 7.1x; PEG ratio of 2.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.7%; Current ratio of 49.67 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 3.51; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (7.20); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 2.3%; 3 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-14.5% -> +4.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 25.2%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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