NASDAQ · STOCK
Arm Holdings
$239.46
52W $100.02 – $452.70
57/100
$255.99B
247.1
3.77
Is ARM Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Arm Holdings (ARM) Watch with a composite score of 57/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated August 01, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.42 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.58 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 25.1% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Value Analyst remains cautious — p/e of 246.2 is expensive by classic value standards. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Revenue growing 25.1% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 48.5% YoY — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 3.93 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 246.2 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 19.4x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 41.4% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of August 01, 2026
Overall Committee Score
57/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 41%
of 172 Technology peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 246.2 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
71
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 25.1% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 41.4% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 100 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2535.03)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score strengthened from 53.2 to 56.6.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 57% to 43%.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: score 60->71 (+11); +2 bullish signal(s).
- Macro Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->70 (+12); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-31 to 2026-08-01 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
34.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-4.236
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$127.03
Resistance
$452.15
Bollinger %B
0.16
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$254.20
Below
EMA 21
$277.83
Below
EMA 50
$287.20
Below
EMA 200
$218.09
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
0
Growth
66
Profitability
1
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
247.1×
P/B Ratio
29.61×
PEG Ratio
5.26
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$452.70
52W Low
$100.02
Quality & Growth
ROE
10.9%
ROA
8.5%
Gross Margin
95.3%
Operating Margin
17.3%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.05
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 247.1 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 29.6x; PEG ratio of 5.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.2%; Gross margin of 1.0%; Current ratio of 5.25 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.05; Free cash flow margin of 0.7% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (1.38); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 10.8%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+39.5% -> -25.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 28.6%; Analyst estimates flat over recent quarters
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