NASDAQ · STOCK
AeroVironment
$148.82
52W $135.20 – $417.86
49/100
—
-30.8
1.40
Explore AVAV Further
Is AVAV Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates AeroVironment (AVAV) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated July 20, 2026.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 140.9% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — bollinger bandwidth of 39.3% signals elevated volatility. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Daily volatility (ATR%) above ~3% is treated as elevated risk.
Bear Case
- MACD histogram is negative (-0.749) — bearish momentum.
- Daily trend is down — entering long positions against the trend.
- Both daily and weekly trends are bearish — strong multi-timeframe downtrend.
- Lower Highs / Lower Lows structure confirms bearish price action.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 18.0% downside vs 0.3% upside.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 20, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Value Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
− ROE of only -6.0% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 140.9% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
15
/ 100 · Low confidence
A severe recent event (see event intelligence) dominates the risk assessment regardless of balance-sheet or volatility metrics.
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.17) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 39.3% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net negative -- worth reading before acting
− Severe filing: Non-reliance on previously issued financials (restatement) (28d ago)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2975.52)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 49.0 to 49.0.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
Analyst-level changes:
- News Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-19 to 2026-07-20 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
40.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.749
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$116.86
Resistance
$142.96
Bollinger %B
0.34
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$147.23
Above
EMA 21
$154.30
Below
EMA 50
$167.29
Below
EMA 200
$211.43
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
60
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
11
Valuation
P/E Ratio
-30.8×
P/B Ratio
1.59×
PEG Ratio
0.43
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$417.86
52W Low
$135.20
Quality & Growth
ROE
-6.0%
ROA
-4.6%
Gross Margin
25.3%
Operating Margin
-15.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.19
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of -30.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.6x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -0.1%; Return on assets of -0.0%; Net margin of -0.1%; Gross margin of 0.3%; Current ratio of 4.30 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.19; Free cash flow margin of 1.6% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is negative (-2.51); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 23.2%; EPS growth accelerating (+45.5% -> +187.5% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
Key Risks
- MACD histogram is negative (-0.749) — bearish momentum.
- Daily trend is down — entering long positions against the trend.
- Both daily and weekly trends are bearish — strong multi-timeframe downtrend.
- Lower Highs / Lower Lows structure confirms bearish price action.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 18.0% downside vs 0.3% upside.
This risk summary is generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative opinion. All investors should conduct their own due diligence. This is not financial advice.
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