NASDAQ · STOCK
AvalonBay Communities
$191.86
52W $160.10 – $205.00
59/100
$25533.13T
23.8
0.78
Price History (6M)
Executive Summary
7 analysts weighed in with 57% agreement on a bullish lean. Portfolio Manager: Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy. Risk Analyst: Current ratio of 0.19 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion. Overall recommendation: WATCH.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Positive MACD histogram signals bullish momentum.
- Daily trend: uptrend.
- Daily uptrend conflicts with weekly downtrend — buying against the higher timeframe trend is higher risk.
- Daily volatility (ATR%) above ~3% is treated as elevated risk.
Bear Case
- Weekly trend is bearish while daily is bullish — against the higher-timeframe trend.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 2.9% downside vs 0.6% upside.
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 11, 2026
Overall Committee Score
59/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Value Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Dividend yield of 3.8% pays you to wait
Growth Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
− EPS declining -0.4% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.19 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 16 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
bullish
75
/ 100 · Low confidence
The existing book is healthy enough that position-sizing here is a matter of stock selection, not portfolio constraints
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
57.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.301
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$186.34
Resistance
$192.99
Bollinger %B
0.72
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$190.69
Above
EMA 21
$188.55
Above
EMA 50
$185.08
Above
EMA 200
$183.53
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
51
Growth
72
Profitability
1
Financial Health
42
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
23.8×
P/B Ratio
2.33×
PEG Ratio
63.71
Dividend Yield
0.04%
52W High
$205.00
52W Low
$160.10
Quality & Growth
ROE
9.1%
ROA
4.7%
Gross Margin
67.9%
Operating Margin
29.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.81
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 23.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.3x; PEG ratio of 63.7 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.4%; Gross margin of 0.7%; Current ratio of 0.35 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.81; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (10.75); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 81.5%; EPS growth accelerating (-56.3% -> +99.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
Key Risks
- Weekly trend is bearish while daily is bullish — against the higher-timeframe trend.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 2.9% downside vs 0.6% upside.
This risk summary is generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative opinion. All investors should conduct their own due diligence. This is not financial advice.
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