NASDAQ · STOCK
TopBuild Corp.
$353.73
52W $330.51 – $559.47
45/100
$9.94B
19.8
1.83
Is BLD Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates TopBuild Corp. (BLD) Watch with a composite score of 45/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +15.12 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -4.88 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case. Growth Analyst remains cautious — eps declining -9.8% yoy despite any revenue growth. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 22.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 5.1x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -9.8% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- RSI at 24 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
45/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 99%
of 158 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 22.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 5.1x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -9.8% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Bollinger bandwidth of 18.5% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
− No news coverage in the last 14 days -- limited independent confirmation either way
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 46.0 to 44.9.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
23.7
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-4.927
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$351.06
Resistance
$365.40
Bollinger %B
-0.19
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$395.70
Below
EMA 21
$404.60
Below
EMA 50
$410.38
Below
EMA 200
$413.59
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
80
Growth
48
Profitability
1
Financial Health
80
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
19.8×
P/B Ratio
4.13×
PEG Ratio
-2.00
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$559.47
52W Low
$330.51
Quality & Growth
ROE
22.5%
ROA
7.8%
Gross Margin
28.8%
Operating Margin
14.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.30
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 19.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.1x; PEG ratio of -2.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.2%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.3%; Current ratio of 2.00 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.30; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (25.18); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 1.5%; EPS growth roughly steady (-16.0% -> -16.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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