NASDAQ · STOCK
BWX Technologies
$168.70
52W $143.07 – $241.82
49/100
$15.46B
44.7
0.74
Is BWXT Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates BWX Technologies (BWXT) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 7 analysts with 43% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.33 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.67 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 23 articles, 14d). Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.64) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 27.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 23 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 43.8 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 12.8x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 1.64 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
43%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 93%
of 158 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ ROE of 27.9% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 43.8 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
60
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
42
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.64) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 23 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 50.4 to 48.7.
- Committee agreement increased modestly from 33% to 43%.
- New bearish signals: 7 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 6 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Growth Analyst, Macro Analyst, Technical Analyst.
- New analyst(s) joined: Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: stance neutral->bullish.
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: score 68->64 (-4); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 32->42 (+10).
- Value Analyst joined: bearish at 40.
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
43.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.458
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$164.16
Resistance
$189.23
Bollinger %B
0.28
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$169.96
Below
EMA 21
$176.36
Below
EMA 50
$186.44
Below
EMA 200
$189.04
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
11
Growth
78
Profitability
1
Financial Health
73
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
44.7×
P/B Ratio
12.08×
PEG Ratio
2.32
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$241.82
52W Low
$143.07
Quality & Growth
ROE
26.8%
ROA
7.7%
Gross Margin
22.6%
Operating Margin
10.4%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.58
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 44.7 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 12.1x; PEG ratio of 2.3 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.3%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 2.40 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.58; Free cash flow margin of 0.6% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (3.58); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 18.6%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+8.0% -> +3.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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