NASDAQ · STOCK
Carlyle Group Inc.
$46.02
52W $39.60 – $69.85
45/100
$16.57B
30.2
1.83
Is CG Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) Watch with a composite score of 45/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +14.76 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -5.24 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 3.1% pays you to wait — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 1.83 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 29.9 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.33 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Revenue declining -28.9% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -50.6% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
45/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 99%
of 141 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
43
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Dividend yield of 3.1% pays you to wait
− P/E of 29.9 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bearish
22
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− Revenue declining -28.9% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.33) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 46.3 to 45.2.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 57% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
58.0
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.117
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$44.87
Resistance
$53.83
Bollinger %B
0.75
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$45.43
Above
EMA 21
$45.02
Above
EMA 50
$45.33
Above
EMA 200
$49.72
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
72
Growth
13
Profitability
0
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
10
Valuation
P/E Ratio
30.2×
P/B Ratio
3.06×
PEG Ratio
-0.61
Dividend Yield
0.03%
52W High
$69.85
52W Low
$39.60
Quality & Growth
ROE
14.0%
ROA
2.8%
Gross Margin
73.1%
Operating Margin
22.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.71
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 30.2 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.1x; PEG ratio of -0.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.7%; Current ratio of 10.83 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.71; Free cash flow margin of 1.1% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is negative (-2.56); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 8.4%; 4 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth decelerating (+5.2% -> -11.9% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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