NASDAQ · STOCK
CME Group
$267.83
52W $218.31 – $329.16
56/100
$96.29B
22.6
0.28
Is CME Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates CME Group (CME) Buy with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +18.89 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -1.11 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Some positive signals exist — roe of 15.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — but they are not yet strong enough to justify a Buy. The committee is monitoring for confirmation.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 15.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.12) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 73 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- RSI at 80 is in overbought territory — Technical
- Price trading above the upper Bollinger Band -- stretched — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 15.0% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 61%
of 141 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ ROE of 15.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− RSI at 80 is in overbought territory
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.12) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 15.0% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 73 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 60.4 to 56.1.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 57% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, Risk Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 80->58 (-22); +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
80.5
Overbought
MACD Histogram
3.502
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$263.29
Resistance
$287.64
Bollinger %B
0.97
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$258.98
Above
EMA 21
$252.57
Above
EMA 50
$256.33
Above
EMA 200
$271.61
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
70
Growth
49
Profitability
1
Financial Health
59
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
22.6×
P/B Ratio
3.64×
PEG Ratio
1.56
Dividend Yield
0.04%
52W High
$329.16
52W Low
$218.31
Quality & Growth
ROE
14.1%
ROA
2.0%
Gross Margin
81.9%
Operating Margin
65.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.13
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 22.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.6x; PEG ratio of 1.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.6%; Gross margin of 0.8%; Current ratio of 1.02 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.13; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (11.70); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 1.8%; EPS growth decelerating (+21.3% -> -11.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 1.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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