NASDAQ · STOCK
Capital One
$209.08
52W $174.24 – $259.64
65/100
$128.22B
12.9
1.02
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is COF Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Capital One (COF) Buy with a composite score of 65/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +9.73 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -10.27 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is split. Analysts see this stock differently enough that the current rating reflects genuine uncertainty, not a weak signal.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 12.1 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.4x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Revenue growing 38.2% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 522.0% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- Both daily and weekly trends are bearish — strong multi-timeframe downtrend.
- Bearish candlestick pattern(s) detected: Bearish Engulfing.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 2.5% downside vs 0.8% upside.
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
65/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 7%
of 141 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
77
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 12.1 is inexpensive for the broad market
Growth Analyst
bullish
85
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 38.2% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 65 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 64.9 to 65.3.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 54->61 (+8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
56.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.013
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$203.77
Resistance
$210.66
Bollinger %B
0.70
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$207.66
Above
EMA 21
$205.06
Above
EMA 50
$200.34
Above
EMA 200
$201.33
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
80
Profitability
0
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
38
Valuation
P/E Ratio
12.9×
P/B Ratio
1.14×
PEG Ratio
0.02
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$259.64
52W Low
$174.24
Quality & Growth
ROE
2.2%
ROA
0.4%
Gross Margin
66.2%
Operating Margin
21.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.40
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 12.9 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.1x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.0%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.7%; Current ratio of 0.20 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.40; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (51.89); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 21.0%; EPS growth accelerating (+14.5% -> +31.4% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 6.0%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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