NASDAQ · STOCK
FedEx
$307.35
52W $174.13 – $345.37
62/100
$72.73B
16.7
1.34
⚠
Buy rating, but near-term risk/reward is unfavorable
The long-term recommendation is based on the composite investment score. The near-term risk/reward is based on nearby support and resistance levels. These can differ when a strong company trades close to resistance with support further below.
Is FDX Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates FedEx (FDX) Buy with a composite score of 62/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +13.04 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -6.96 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Supporting evidence favours the bullish case. Most analysts agree, and no major concerns are blocking a stronger rating.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 15.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Both daily and weekly trends are bearish — strong multi-timeframe downtrend.
- Lower Highs / Lower Lows structure confirms bearish price action.
- Bearish candlestick pattern(s) detected: Bearish Engulfing.
- Risk/reward is unfavorable: 8.1% downside vs 0.1% upside.
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
62/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 3%
of 158 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ ROE of 15.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bullish
70
/ 100 · Low confidence
Risk profile is manageable -- leverage, volatility, and event exposure all look contained
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 32 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 62.7 to 62.0.
- Conviction changed from high to moderate.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 86% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
37.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.719
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$282.54
Resistance
$307.57
Bollinger %B
0.14
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$311.03
Below
EMA 21
$314.74
Below
EMA 50
$327.56
Below
EMA 200
$323.20
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
75
Growth
90
Profitability
0
Financial Health
57
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
16.7×
P/B Ratio
2.34×
PEG Ratio
2.13
Dividend Yield
0.02%
52W High
$345.37
52W Low
$174.13
Quality & Growth
ROE
14.0%
ROA
4.5%
Gross Margin
22.9%
Operating Margin
6.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.36
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 16.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.3x; PEG ratio of 2.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 1.48 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.36; Free cash flow margin of 0.6% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (21.23); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.8%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+8.9% -> +20.2% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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