NASDAQ · STOCK
Ferrovial
$65.08
52W $50.72 – $74.79
54/100
$47.22B
113.5
0.80
Is FER Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Ferrovial (FER) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.60 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.40 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 6 articles, 14d). Value Analyst remains cautious — p/e of 45.6 is expensive by classic value standards. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 15.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 6 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 45.6 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 6.8x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.00 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -72.3% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.00) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 51%
of 158 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
bearish
40
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
+ ROE of 15.0% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 45.6 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− EPS declining -72.3% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.00) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
74
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.50 across 6 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 54.0 to 54.4.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 57% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 48->58 (+10); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
61.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.225
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$64.39
Resistance
$65.17
Bollinger %B
0.69
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$63.84
Above
EMA 21
$64.48
Above
EMA 50
$65.85
Below
EMA 200
$65.25
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
38
Growth
75
Profitability
0
Financial Health
33
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
113.5×
P/B Ratio
7.14×
PEG Ratio
-1.39
Dividend Yield
0.02%
52W High
$74.79
52W Low
$50.72
Quality & Growth
ROE
15.0%
ROA
3.2%
Gross Margin
40.5%
Operating Margin
11.1%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.86
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 113.5 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 7.1x; PEG ratio of -1.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.2%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.4%; Current ratio of 1.20 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.86; Free cash flow margin of 0.8% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (1.99); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 5.3%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-90.2% -> -25.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -92.6%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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