NASDAQ · STOCK
Fair Isaac
$1,122.97
52W $870.01 – $1998.01
52/100
$24.25B
32.3
1.29
Is FICO Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Fair Isaac (FICO) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +8.50 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -11.50 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 35.9% yoy. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 2.54) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 145.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 35.9% YoY — Growth
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- Beta of 1.34 means this name should amplify a favorable market regime — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 31.8 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 37.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.54 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Price trading below the lower Bollinger Band -- stretched to the downside — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 75%
of 172 Technology peers
Value Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 145.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 31.8 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 35.9% YoY
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
54
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ Weekly trend (sideways) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
33
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.54) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 51.7 to 51.5.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased sharply from 43% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 6 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 5 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: stance bearish->neutral; score 40->45 (+5); +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
33.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-11.363
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$1105.65
Resistance
$1322.99
Bollinger %B
-0.04
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$1,228.42
Below
EMA 21
$1,231.51
Below
EMA 50
$1,212.02
Below
EMA 200
$1,328.92
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
77
Growth
71
Profitability
1
Financial Health
66
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
32.3×
P/B Ratio
-6.21×
PEG Ratio
0.95
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$1998.01
52W Low
$870.01
Quality & Growth
ROE
-37.3%
ROA
34.9%
Gross Margin
85.1%
Operating Margin
51.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-1.37
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 32.3 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -6.2x; PEG ratio of 0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -0.4%; Return on assets of 0.3%; Net margin of 0.3%; Gross margin of 0.9%; Current ratio of 1.18 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -1.37; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (43.94); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 1.8%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+70.5% -> -2.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 42.1%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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