NASDAQ · STOCK
Houlihan Lokey
$125.17
52W $112.83 – $211.78
48/100
$8.77B
20.6
0.96
Is HLI Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Houlihan Lokey (HLI) Watch with a composite score of 48/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.73 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.27 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 18.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 4.3x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- RSI at 29 is in oversold territory (could mean either capitulation or a bounce setup) — Technical
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Trend and market structure agree -- coherent bearish picture — Technical
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
48/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 94%
of 141 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
59
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 18.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 4.3x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is deteriorating -- trend and/or momentum are working against this name
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.00) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Current ratio of 0.97 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened from 53.3 to 48.3.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 57% to 71%.
- New bearish signals: 7 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance bullish->bearish; score 61->32 (-30); +5 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
26.1
Oversold
MACD Histogram
-1.086
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$121.87
Resistance
$133.67
Bollinger %B
-0.14
Below Lower Band
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$135.43
Below
EMA 21
$137.52
Below
EMA 50
$140.56
Below
EMA 200
$155.99
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
81
Growth
29
Profitability
1
Financial Health
50
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
20.6×
P/B Ratio
3.70×
PEG Ratio
-14.15
Dividend Yield
0.02%
52W High
$211.78
52W Low
$112.83
Quality & Growth
ROE
18.2%
ROA
9.9%
Gross Margin
50.8%
Operating Margin
21.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.22
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 20.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 3.7x; PEG ratio of -14.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.2%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.2%; Gross margin of 0.5%; Current ratio of 0.00 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.22; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (7.29); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 22.2%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth roughly steady (-16.0% -> -17.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of -36.9%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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