NASDAQ · STOCK
Illinois Tool Works
$287.00
52W $238.82 – $303.16
52/100
$82.56B
25.9
1.01
Is ITW Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +8.46 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -11.54 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 45 articles, 14d). Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 2.78) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 101.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 25.8 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 22.2x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 2.78 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- EPS declining -3.2% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Price structure (LH_LL) contradicts the uptrend -- mixed signals — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.78) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 72%
of 158 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 101.8% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 25.8 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− EPS declining -3.2% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
bullish
63
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− Price structure (LH_LL) contradicts the uptrend -- mixed signals
Risk Analyst
bearish
30
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 2.78) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 45 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 51.8 to 51.5.
- New bearish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 6 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 57->63 (+6).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
59.7
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.901
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$254.47
Resistance
$303.12
Bollinger %B
0.80
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$284.08
Above
EMA 21
$278.04
Above
EMA 50
$270.59
Above
EMA 200
$263.59
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
52
Growth
76
Profitability
2
Financial Health
13
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
25.9×
P/B Ratio
28.40×
PEG Ratio
-8.01
Dividend Yield
0.02%
52W High
$303.16
52W Low
$238.82
Quality & Growth
ROE
95.1%
ROA
19.0%
Gross Margin
44.2%
Operating Margin
26.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
3.35
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 25.9 (moderate relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 28.4x; PEG ratio of -8.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 1.0%; Return on assets of 0.2%; Net margin of 0.2%; Gross margin of 0.4%; Current ratio of 1.11 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 3.35; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (8.00); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.6%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-2.2% -> +6.8% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 10.1%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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