NASDAQ · STOCK
Jefferies
$54.61
52W $35.53 – $71.04
56/100
$11.11B
14.7
1.54
Is JEF Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Jefferies (JEF) Watch with a composite score of 56/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +3.73 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -16.27 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Technical Analyst sees a compelling case — price structure making higher highs and higher lows. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 3.35) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 14.2 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.1x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 2.9% pays you to wait — Value
- EPS growing 31.0% YoY — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 3.35 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns — Growth
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.35) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.71 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
56/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 61%
of 141 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 14.2 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 3.35 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 31.0% YoY
− 2 consecutive earnings misses -- execution concerns
Technical Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 3.35) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 59.0 to 56.3.
- Conviction changed from moderate to contested.
- Committee agreement fell modestly from 60% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 5 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 6 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Growth Analyst, Macro Analyst.
- New analyst(s) joined: Risk Analyst, Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 52->64 (+11); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +2 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst joined: bearish at 32.
- Value Analyst joined: bullish at 65.
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
44.1
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.003
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$51.77
Resistance
$55.03
Bollinger %B
0.48
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$55.41
Below
EMA 21
$55.18
Below
EMA 50
$54.33
Above
EMA 200
$53.83
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
57
Profitability
0
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
14.7×
P/B Ratio
1.11×
PEG Ratio
0.42
Dividend Yield
0.03%
52W High
$71.04
52W Low
$35.53
Quality & Growth
ROE
6.7%
ROA
0.9%
Gross Margin
67.9%
Operating Margin
7.5%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
3.48
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 14.7 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.1x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.7%; Current ratio of 0.78 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 3.48; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (8.26); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 12.6%; 2 consecutive earnings misses; EPS growth accelerating (-27.1% -> +45.7% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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