NASDAQ · STOCK
Kratos Defense & Security Solutions
$46.56
52W $43.09 – $134.00
54/100
$8.74B
269.5
1.07
Is KTOS Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Kratos Defense & Security Solutions (KTOS) Watch with a composite score of 54/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +6.11 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -13.89 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 34.7% yoy. Value Analyst remains cautious — p/e of 298.1 is expensive by classic value standards. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- EPS growing 34.7% YoY — Growth
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.05) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock — Risk
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- P/E of 298.1 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- Price-to-book of 6.6x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- ROE of only 1.3% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Price structure making lower highs and lower lows — Technical
- Bollinger bandwidth of 21.7% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
54/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 54%
of 158 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
bearish
38
/ 100 · High confidence
Multiples don't clear a genuine value bar here, or cheapness looks justified by weak fundamentals
− P/E of 298.1 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 34.7% YoY
− Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level
Technical Analyst
neutral
52
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
− Price structure making lower highs and lower lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.05) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Bollinger bandwidth of 21.7% signals elevated volatility
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
62
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.3 to 53.9.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 43% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
45.3
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.102
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Downtrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$25.80
Resistance
$66.72
Bollinger %B
0.30
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$47.11
Below
EMA 21
$48.49
Below
EMA 50
$52.82
Below
EMA 200
$65.00
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
29
Growth
69
Profitability
0
Financial Health
100
Cash Flow
16
Valuation
P/E Ratio
269.5×
P/B Ratio
2.42×
PEG Ratio
8.76
Dividend Yield
0.00%
52W High
$134.00
52W Low
$43.09
Quality & Growth
ROE
1.1%
ROA
0.9%
Gross Margin
21.8%
Operating Margin
2.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.05
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 269.5 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.4x; PEG ratio of 8.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.0%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 5.63 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.05; Free cash flow margin of 3.2% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is negative (-0.76); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 16.8%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+28.6% -> -11.1% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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