NASDAQ · STOCK
Mid-America Apartment Communities
$132.45
52W $120.30 – $149.18
49/100
—
101.0
0.73
Is MAA Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Mid-America Apartment Communities (MAA) Watch with a composite score of 49/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 30, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +11.43 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -8.57 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Macro Analyst sees a compelling case. Growth Analyst remains cautious — eps declining -31.2% yoy despite any revenue growth. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Dividend yield of 4.5% pays you to wait — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 39.6 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- EPS declining -31.2% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- Current ratio of 0.10 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 30, 2026
Overall Committee Score
49/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 95%
of 61 Real Estate peers
Value Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Dividend yield of 4.5% pays you to wait
− P/E of 39.6 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -31.2% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
35
/ 100 · Low confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− Current ratio of 0.10 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
bullish
65
/ 100 · Low confidence
Macro backdrop is supportive of risk assets generally, and this name's beta works in its favor
News Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 3062.29)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score weakened significantly from 63.3 to 48.6.
- Recommendation changed from Buy to Watch.
- Committee agreement fell modestly from 60% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 5 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Growth Analyst, News Analyst.
- New analyst(s) joined: Risk Analyst, Value Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Growth Analyst: stance bullish->bearish; score 85->32 (-53); +2 bearish signal(s).
- Macro Analyst: score 70->65 (-5).
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 68->58 (-11).
- Portfolio Manager: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst joined: bearish at 35.
- Technical Analyst: score 48->58 (+10); +1 bullish signal(s).
- Value Analyst joined: neutral at 48.
Comparing 2026-07-29 to 2026-07-30 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
45.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.003
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$129.81
Resistance
$137.78
Bollinger %B
0.35
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$134.41
Below
EMA 21
$134.79
Below
EMA 50
$134.19
Below
EMA 200
$134.29
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
60
Growth
61
Profitability
1
Financial Health
36
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
101.0×
P/B Ratio
2.86×
PEG Ratio
-1.39
Dividend Yield
0.05%
52W High
$149.18
52W Low
$120.30
Quality & Growth
ROE
7.9%
ROA
3.7%
Gross Margin
18.4%
Operating Margin
40.9%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.05
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 101.0 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.9x; PEG ratio of -1.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.4%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 0.07 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.05; Free cash flow margin of 0.6% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (2.85); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 174.6%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+120.8% -> +96.2% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 126.1%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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