NASDAQ · STOCK
Marathon Petroleum
$316.34
52W $158.00 – $326.92
52/100
$92.39B
20.6
0.52
Is MPC Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Marathon Petroleum (MPC) Watch with a composite score of 52/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +8.05 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -11.95 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. News Analyst sees a compelling case — news sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 36 articles, 14d). Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 1.90) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 27.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 115.0% YoY — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- Weekly trend (uptrend) confirms the daily trend -- multi-timeframe agreement — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 36 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 1.90 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- Revenue declining -0.9% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- Weekly RSI at 78 -- overbought on the larger timeframe too — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.90) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
52/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 77%
of 40 Energy peers
Value Analyst
neutral
56
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 27.3% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Debt-to-equity of 1.90 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ EPS growing 115.0% YoY
− Revenue declining -0.9% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 1.90) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 36 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.0 to 52.0.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 43% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
68.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.656
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Bollinger %B
0.73
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$310.66
Above
EMA 21
$299.78
Above
EMA 50
$279.71
Above
EMA 200
$232.37
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
72
Growth
51
Profitability
0
Financial Health
27
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
20.6×
P/B Ratio
5.57×
PEG Ratio
0.18
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$326.92
52W Low
$158.00
Quality & Growth
ROE
23.4%
ROA
4.7%
Gross Margin
8.8%
Operating Margin
5.0%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
2.05
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 20.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 5.6x; PEG ratio of 0.2 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.2%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.1%; Current ratio of 1.18 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 2.05; Free cash flow margin of 0.6% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (19.33); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 118.6%; 2 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth decelerating (+35.2% -> -59.5% QoQ); Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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