NASDAQ · STOCK
Marsh McLennan
$189.72
52W $156.60 – $213.80
51/100
$90.52B
23.1
0.60
Is MRSH Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Marsh McLennan (MRSH) Watch with a composite score of 51/100
, based on 6 analysts with 83% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +8.80 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -11.20 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee sees neither a compelling opportunity nor a clear risk at this stage. Conditions remain neutral — patience is warranted.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 26.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 5.9x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- EPS declining -1.9% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Growth rate is decelerating quarter over quarter -- the trend line matters more than the level — Growth
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
51/100
Agreement
83%
Analysts
6
Conviction
High
Sector Rank
Top 87%
of 141 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 26.5% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 5.9x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · High confidence
Growth story is weak, decelerating, or inconsistent
− EPS declining -1.9% YoY despite any revenue growth
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
neutral
60
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow is mixed or quiet -- no strong signal either way right now
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 51.1 to 51.2.
- Conviction strengthened -- analysts aligned more closely.
- Committee agreement increased sharply from 50% to 83%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 1 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 5 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: stance bullish->neutral.
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: score 48->58 (+10).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
60.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.938
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Downtrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$174.26
Resistance
$193.27
Bollinger %B
0.81
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$187.22
Above
EMA 21
$181.87
Above
EMA 50
$175.85
Above
EMA 200
$179.37
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
66
Growth
53
Profitability
1
Financial Health
40
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
23.1×
P/B Ratio
6.02×
PEG Ratio
-10.77
Dividend Yield
0.02%
52W High
$213.80
52W Low
$156.60
Quality & Growth
ROE
27.6%
ROA
7.1%
Gross Margin
42.4%
Operating Margin
21.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.47
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 23.1 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 6.0x; PEG ratio of -10.8 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.3%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.4%; Current ratio of 1.14 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.47; Free cash flow margin of 0.9% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (9.89); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 0.1%; EPS growth decelerating (+55.2% -> -10.0% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 8.8%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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