NASDAQ · STOCK
MSCI Inc.
$573.03
52W $501.08 – $644.77
53/100
$41.60B
31.5
1.24
Is MSCI Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates MSCI Inc. (MSCI) Watch with a composite score of 53/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +7.41 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -12.59 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — quarter-over-quarter growth rate is accelerating, not just positive. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 5.18) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 108.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 58 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- P/E of 30.8 is moderate-to-rich — Value
- Price-to-book of 28.7x prices in significant intangible value — Value
- Debt-to-equity of 5.18 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 5.18) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.90 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
53/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 82%
of 141 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 108.7% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− P/E of 30.8 is moderate-to-rich
Growth Analyst
bullish
75
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive
Technical Analyst
neutral
48
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
33
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 5.18) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 58 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 53.7 to 52.6.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 43% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
43.2
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-2.637
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$560.24
Resistance
$576.40
Bollinger %B
0.30
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$578.28
Below
EMA 21
$585.69
Below
EMA 50
$588.29
Below
EMA 200
$576.73
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
69
Growth
65
Profitability
1
Financial Health
54
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
31.5×
P/B Ratio
-15.53×
PEG Ratio
1.56
Dividend Yield
0.01%
52W High
$644.77
52W Low
$501.08
Quality & Growth
ROE
-45.3%
ROA
21.1%
Gross Margin
83.0%
Operating Margin
55.7%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
-2.42
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 31.5 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of -15.5x; PEG ratio of 1.6 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of -0.5%; Return on assets of 0.2%; Net margin of 0.4%; Gross margin of 0.8%; Current ratio of 0.89 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of -2.42; Free cash flow margin of 1.0% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (21.89); Most recent quarter missed estimates by 1.9%; EPS growth accelerating (-2.4% -> +8.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 18.5%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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