NASDAQ · STOCK
Murphy Oil
$39.77
52W $21.86 – $43.34
55/100
$5.70B
67.4
0.51
Is MUR Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Murphy Oil (MUR) Watch with a composite score of 55/100
, based on 7 analysts with 71% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +5.43 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -14.57 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Some positive signals exist — price structure making higher highs and higher lows — but they are not yet strong enough to justify a Buy. The committee is monitoring for confirmation.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- Price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value — Value
- Dividend yield of 3.7% pays you to wait — Value
- 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
Bear Case
- P/E of 65.9 is expensive by classic value standards — Value
- ROE of only 1.6% -- cheap may mean cheap for a reason — Value
- Revenue declining -4.2% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now — Growth
- EPS declining -77.6% YoY despite any revenue growth — Growth
- Current ratio of 0.77 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
- Bollinger bandwidth of 26.6% signals elevated volatility — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
55/100
Agreement
71%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 55%
of 40 Energy peers
Value Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ Price-to-book of 0.9x is a discount to asset value
− P/E of 65.9 is expensive by classic value standards
Growth Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · High confidence
Moderate growth -- present but not remarkable
+ 4 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
− Revenue declining -4.2% YoY -- this is not a growth story right now
Technical Analyst
bullish
69
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
neutral
50
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Moderate risk -- no single red flag, but nothing that clearly de-risks the position either
+ Low leverage (debt-to-equity 0.27) -- balance sheet can absorb a shock
− Current ratio of 0.77 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 55.2 to 54.6.
- New bearish signals: 4 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 4 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, News Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->61 (+3).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Risk Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bearish signal(s); +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
67.5
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.390
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Mixed
Support
$39.56
Resistance
$43.01
Bollinger %B
0.87
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$38.08
Above
EMA 21
$37.00
Above
EMA 50
$36.70
Above
EMA 200
$34.63
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
67
Growth
94
Profitability
0
Financial Health
51
Cash Flow
35
Valuation
P/E Ratio
67.4×
P/B Ratio
1.12×
PEG Ratio
-0.87
Dividend Yield
0.03%
52W High
$43.34
52W Low
$21.86
Quality & Growth
ROE
2.0%
ROA
1.1%
Gross Margin
69.1%
Operating Margin
10.6%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.45
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 67.4 (rich relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.1x; PEG ratio of -0.9 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.0%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.0%; Gross margin of 0.7%; Current ratio of 0.83 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.45; Free cash flow margin of 0.1% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (1.24); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 10.2%; 4 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-65.9% -> +128.6% QoQ); Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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