NASDAQ · STOCK
Annaly Capital Management
$22.70
52W $20.00 – $24.52
60/100
—
5.8
1.24
Is NLY Bullish or Bearish?
Bullish.
Innellis AI committee rates Annaly Capital Management (NLY) Buy with a composite score of 60/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Requires a committee score of 75.0 — +14.95 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Watch
- Requires the score to fall below 55.0 — -5.05 from today. The band boundary is 60.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — revenue growing 50.9% yoy -- genuine top-line momentum. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 7.22) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 5.8 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- Price-to-book of 1.0x is a discount to asset value — Value
- ROE of 18.4% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- Dividend yield of 13.0% pays you to wait — Value
- Revenue growing 50.9% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum — Growth
- EPS growing 231.1% YoY — Growth
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 7.22 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 7.22) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.03 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
60/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 4%
of 61 Real Estate peers
Value Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 5.8 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 7.22 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
83
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ Revenue growing 50.9% YoY -- genuine top-line momentum
Technical Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 7.22) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
66
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.27 across 38 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 59.7 to 60.0.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 1 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 3 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst, Technical Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Technical Analyst: stance neutral->bullish; score 58->68 (+10); +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
59.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
0.002
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Sideways
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Support
$21.80
Resistance
$24.43
Bollinger %B
0.73
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$22.85
Below
EMA 21
$22.73
Below
EMA 50
$22.49
Above
EMA 200
$22.07
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
100
Growth
70
Profitability
1
Financial Health
0
Cash Flow
8
Valuation
P/E Ratio
5.8×
P/B Ratio
1.00×
PEG Ratio
0.02
Dividend Yield
0.12%
52W High
$24.52
52W Low
$20.00
Quality & Growth
ROE
12.6%
ROA
1.5%
Gross Margin
99.3%
Operating Margin
111.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
7.38
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 5.8 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 1.0x; PEG ratio of 0.0 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.4%; Gross margin of 1.0%; Current ratio of 0.04 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 7.38; Free cash flow margin of -0.1% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is negative (-0.14); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 4.6%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth roughly steady (+2.7% -> +3.9% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 8.2%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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