NASDAQ · STOCK
Northrop Grumman
$542.47
52W $479.02 – $774.00
58/100
$77.07B
17.2
-0.10
Is NOC Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Northrop Grumman (NOC) Watch with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 6 analysts with 67% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +1.97 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -18.03 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
Some positive signals exist — 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — but they are not yet strong enough to justify a Buy. The committee is monitoring for confirmation.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- ROE of 26.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum — Technical
- Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing) — Macro
- News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 93 articles, 14d) — News
Bear Case
- Price-to-book of 4.9x prices in significant intangible value — Value
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
67%
Analysts
6
Conviction
Moderate
Sector Rank
Top 20%
of 158 Industrials peers
Value Analyst
neutral
55
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Fair value -- neither a bargain nor obviously overpriced
+ ROE of 26.6% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation
− Price-to-book of 4.9x prices in significant intangible value
Growth Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ 5 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution
Technical Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · High confidence
Mixed or range-bound price action
+ MACD histogram positive -- bullish momentum
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
64
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.20 across 93 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 58.9 to 58.0.
- Conviction changed from contested to moderate.
- Committee agreement increased notably from 50% to 67%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- New bullish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
57.8
Neutral
MACD Histogram
2.116
Bullish Momentum
Trend Direction
Sideways
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Lh Ll
Support
$450.91
Resistance
$544.48
Bollinger %B
0.67
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$537.16
Above
EMA 21
$534.24
Above
EMA 50
$544.63
Below
EMA 200
$582.36
Below
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
81
Growth
75
Profitability
1
Financial Health
55
Cash Flow
37
Valuation
P/E Ratio
17.2×
P/B Ratio
4.31×
PEG Ratio
1.07
Dividend Yield
0.02%
52W High
$774.00
52W Low
$479.02
Quality & Growth
ROE
25.1%
ROA
8.1%
Gross Margin
20.1%
Operating Margin
10.2%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
0.91
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 17.2 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 4.3x; PEG ratio of 1.1 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.3%; Return on assets of 0.1%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.2%; Current ratio of 1.17 (tight short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 0.91; Free cash flow margin of 0.7% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (25.66); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 11.5%; 5 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (-15.1% -> +25.1% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 8.0%; Analyst estimates falling over recent quarters
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