NASDAQ · STOCK
Northern Trust Corporation
$182.20
52W $121.12 – $191.60
58/100
$33.33B
15.6
1.26
Is NTRS Bullish or Bearish?
Mixed.
Innellis AI committee rates Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS) Watch with a composite score of 58/100
, based on 7 analysts with 57% agreement.
Last updated July 31, 2026.
What Would Change This View
- Upgrade to Buy
- Requires a committee score of 60.0 — +2.20 from today. Applies on the first day at or above the line; upgrades are never dampened.
- Downgrade to Reduce
- Requires the score to fall below 40.0 — -17.80 from today. The band boundary is 45.0, but a one-step downgrade must clear a further margin first. A score oscillating around the line should not change the rating every night.
Executive Summary
The committee is genuinely divided. Growth Analyst sees a compelling case — eps growing 36.1% yoy. Risk Analyst remains cautious — high leverage (debt-to-equity 12.29) amplifies downside in a stress scenario. This disagreement is itself the signal — the setup is not clean in either direction.
Bull & Bear Case
Bull Case
- P/E of 14.9 is inexpensive for the broad market — Value
- ROE of 17.1% shows genuine earnings power backing the valuation — Value
- EPS growing 36.1% YoY — Growth
- 3 consecutive earnings beats -- consistent execution — Growth
- Quarter-over-quarter growth rate is ACCELERATING, not just positive — Growth
- Price structure making higher highs and higher lows — Technical
Bear Case
- Debt-to-equity of 12.29 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case — Value
- MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum — Technical
- High leverage (debt-to-equity 12.29) amplifies downside in a stress scenario — Risk
- Current ratio of 0.40 is tight -- limited short-term liquidity cushion — Risk
Both cases are generated from quantitative data signals, not qualitative or
forward-looking judgement. They summarise what the numbers say today.
Price History (6M)
AI Investment Committee
Committee Consensus
As of July 31, 2026
Overall Committee Score
58/100
Agreement
57%
Analysts
7
Conviction
Contested
Sector Rank
Top 54%
of 141 Financial Services peers
Value Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Classic value case: cheap on multiples with earnings power to back it up
+ P/E of 14.9 is inexpensive for the broad market
− Debt-to-equity of 12.29 adds balance-sheet risk to the value case
Growth Analyst
bullish
79
/ 100 · High confidence
Strong, accelerating growth with consistent execution
+ EPS growing 36.1% YoY
Technical Analyst
bullish
61
/ 100 · High confidence
Price action is constructive -- trend and momentum agree
+ Price structure making higher highs and higher lows
− MACD histogram negative -- bearish momentum
Risk Analyst
bearish
32
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Elevated risk from leverage, volatility, event exposure, or portfolio concentration -- size accordingly
− High leverage (debt-to-equity 12.29) amplifies downside in a stress scenario
Macro Analyst
neutral
58
/ 100 · Moderate confidence
Macro backdrop is mixed or neutral -- not a strong tailwind or headwind either way
+ Market regime is bullish (Bull market -- normal position sizing)
News Analyst
bullish
68
/ 100 · Low confidence
News flow and recent filings/analyst actions are net positive
+ News sentiment is positive (+0.33 across 45 articles, 14d)
Portfolio Manager
neutral
45
/ 100 · High confidence
Portfolio-level factors are mixed -- worth a deliberate sizing decision, not a default-size position
+ Portfolio position concentration is currently healthy
− Sector concentration is already high (HHI 2744.14)
Investment Thesis Evolution
Committee score moved marginally from 58.6 to 57.8.
- Committee agreement fell notably from 71% to 57%.
- New bearish signals: 2 appeared.
- Bullish support removed: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- New bullish signals: 3 appeared.
- Bearish pressure eased: 2 signal(s) disappeared.
- Analyst(s) changed stance: Macro Analyst.
Analyst-level changes:
- Macro Analyst: stance bullish->neutral; score 65->58 (-8); +1 bullish signal(s).
- News Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
- Portfolio Manager: +2 bearish signal(s).
- Value Analyst: +1 bullish signal(s).
Comparing 2026-07-30 to 2026-07-31 (1 day apart).
Technical Analysis
RSI (14)
52.4
Neutral
MACD Histogram
-0.746
Bearish Momentum
Trend Direction
Uptrend
Weekly: Uptrend
Market Structure
Hh Hl
Bollinger %B
0.46
Inside Bands
Price vs Moving Averages
EMA 9
$181.44
Above
EMA 21
$180.78
Above
EMA 50
$175.77
Above
EMA 200
$154.54
Above
Fundamental Analysis
Valuation
94
Growth
86
Profitability
0
Financial Health
83
Cash Flow
36
Valuation
P/E Ratio
15.6×
P/B Ratio
2.50×
PEG Ratio
0.42
Dividend Yield
0.02%
52W High
$191.60
52W Low
$121.12
Quality & Growth
ROE
13.4%
ROA
1.0%
Gross Margin
59.8%
Operating Margin
19.8%
Revenue Growth YoY
—
Debt / Equity
1.18
AI Fundamental Assessment
P/E ratio of 15.6 (inexpensive relative to a 15-40x range); Price-to-book of 2.5x; PEG ratio of 0.4 (under 1.0 suggests growth is undervalued relative to price); Return on equity of 0.1%; Return on assets of 0.0%; Net margin of 0.1%; Gross margin of 0.6%; Current ratio of 4.99 (healthy short-term liquidity); Debt-to-equity of 1.18; Free cash flow margin of 0.2% (thin cash generation); Free cash flow per share is positive (0.71); Most recent quarter beat estimates by 7.5%; 3 consecutive earnings beats; EPS growth accelerating (+0.7% -> +9.6% QoQ); Average YoY EPS growth of 39.4%; Analyst estimates rising over recent quarters
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